Critically and frequently lacking – in comparative social science and humanities & historically-based studies of emerging technologies – is robust technical security studies, including consideration of the role of tacit knowledge and skills that are not readily quantifiable as part of distinguishing the rhetoric of new technologies from the reality. NATO is committed to adjusting “the way it does business,” and the Alliance wants to maintain dialogue with industry, including with non-traditional providers, at every stage of the acquisition process. But they differ with respect to critical socio-political and economic criteria for national prosperity and competitiveness (e.g., demography, research and development [R&D] infrastructure and sustainment, and resource endowments versus dependence). At the same time, to deny or dismiss the role of technology in effecting the outcome (as well as outbreak) of war and conflict is also perilous. Disruptive Technologies and how they are going to impact the emerging conflicts of the 21st century is something which every student of modern warfare is trying to understand. However, governments can learn from venture capital in particular, including from innovative purchasing strategies like the “use fast, fail safely” model, which the US and France have already begun to implement. One must always be cognizant and skeptical of slipping into a technological deterministic mindset. In the global information age, the most technologically advanced military power no longer guarantees national security. A remaining challenge is the time it takes to adapt new ideas and technologies since the pace of innovation is accelerating every day. Here’s what’s happening. Trust amongst nations is key for encouraging the maintenance of a regulatory framework that is both stable and ethical. The aim should be to develop implementable and executable analytical frameworks to explain variable approaches to the development of strategically significant emerging S&T programs, to understand the impact of emerging technology on security in the 21st Century, to enable mechanisms for the world to govern the implications of its own ingenuity, and to inform U.S. defense and foreign policies. Anticipating the types of threats that may emerge as science and technology advance, the potential consequences of those threats, and the probability that new and more disperse types of enemies will obtain or pursue them is necessary. There is a need to think strategically beyond current challenges. If NATO wants to fully harness innovation, it needs to address the delay between initial funding and implementation; it is not enough to find novel innovations. New technologies are coming no matter what, should be embraced, and will fundamentally influence the future of warfare. Excessive trust in AI is extremely dangerous, especially in a military setting, which is why the technology should be implemented incrementally and carefully. –. he public sector has the ability to serve as, for start-ups whose risks are difficult to measure, government investment promotes confidence among private investors. Scientists recruited by the government have been developing some pretty crazy technology. The idea is that small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS), or drones, can collect data at tactical levels, buzzing around … The Future of Warfare and the Role of New and Emerging Technologies November 25, 2020 14:00 CET. Dr. Margaret E. Kosal is Associate Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Institute of Technology and Director of the Sam Nunn Security Program (SNSP). Challenges for implementing AI/ML in combat include its ability be tricked, hacked, or “fuzzed,” and AI/ML also poses risks when it comes to applying the Laws of Armed Conflict. By the way, there are two spelling mistakes in this article. Some states, such as China and those in the Middle East, that have devised new technology strategies are experiencing profound economic and societal transitions. The extent to which these emerging technologies may exacerbate or mitigate the defense challenges that states will pose in the future to U.S. and regional interests needs to be examined. In the late twentieth and early twenty-first century, the nation has struggled – and continues to do so – to deal with the proliferation challenges of new technologically-enabled weapons. Thanks JP. The future of war: Will new technology unleash greater bloodshed than in 1918? But, within the private sector, different industries prioritise different threats. Your email address will not be published. In the future war will be fought primarily by robots, but until then the technology of warfare will continue to advance the capabilities of today's soldier on the battlefield. How we will maintain our values while we develop new technologies is a critical question to consider. The articles and other content which appear on the Modern War Institute website are unofficial expressions of opinion. Although it is impossible to stop countries with different values from using AI as they wish, NATO and its partners can control their own use and develop high standards. Maritime mine warfare technology is about to come of age. I read this article twice, still i havenot got anyting, Your email address will not be published. The Roman empire, perhaps the greatest military power in history, knew this very well. The majority of venture capital worldwide originates in NATO member states, but the long-standing culture gap between governments and the private sector prevents these resources from being fully utilized. The public sector has the ability to serve as “patient capital” for start-ups whose risks are difficult to measure since government investment promotes confidence among private investors. In this sense the geopolitics of AI provide NATO, EU, and partners with an opportunity to unite on maintaining high standards and ethical practices for the use of AI. The most destructive periods of history tend to be those when the means of aggression have gained the upper hand in the art of waging war.”. Harnessing the power of knowledge from member states and partners is essential for NATO to become a trusted partner on AI. A critical piece of the future of networked warfare is a technology already familiar to many consumers and hobbyists: small drones. The wars of the last decade should also remind us that co-option of broadly available commercial technologies may present the most significant operational threat, e.g., cell-phone activated IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan. This will help to bridge the existing acquisition gap, and to maintain technological investments beyond the initial testing period. Panel Two: The Private Sector, Big and Small Threats from Russia and China also underline the importance of our values. Military innovations from wooden catapults to nuclear bombs have been transforming the way war is waged since prehistoric humans carved arrows from stones some 10,000 years ago. Yet, others have argued that such technologies could yield doomsday scenarios and that military applications of such technologies have even greater potential than nuclear weapons to radically change the balance of power. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. It doesn't even really say anything. In order to ensure that new technologies work for us and not against, cooperation with the private sector and academia is more crucial now than ever. The penultimate goal should not be to predict specific new technologies, which is rarely a high-fidelity pursuit except in retrospective cherry-picking of scenarios from favorite science-fiction stories, and one should be skeptical of any one or group that claims thy can do such. Additionally, deteriorating relations between great powers also affect the private sector. new version ofFuture Warfar . The Future Of War. “use fast, fail safely” model, which the US and France have already begun to implement. This initiative will begin with a conference on November 25 th focusing on The Future of Warfare and the Role of New and Emerging Technologies that will bring together experts from the fields of technology, security, and public policy. As the defense leadership attempts to define and prepare a more efficient and effective military from the top down, the services are selectively transforming key capabilities to meet the anticipated needs for warfare in the new millennium. 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